The winds of election fever is blowing nearer and nearer. The President of Parti Pribumi Muhyiddin claimed that the “Malay tsunami” would appear in the coming general election. He further pointed out that UMNO was panicky over it. Whether Muhyiddin’s remark is accurate or not, only the results of the next general election can prove it.
However, the rumour of the general election will be held has spread since the end of last year until now. And yet UMNO still do not have any action, thus it is believed that the factor of Malay votes is in fact a cause of concern of UMNO.
Since the formation of Parti Pribumi, it had attracted those unhappy UMNO grass root members to jump ship and they even included some present state assemblymen.
Since its establishment, the party is quite secretive to the Chinese media. However from reliable sources coming from members of the Opposition party Pakatan Harapan, it was certain Parti Pribumi had set its target of infiltrating into FELDA which was the source of anchor votes for UMNO.
Mahathir the man who ruled Malaysia for 22 years cum Chairman of Parti Pribumi should know it very well where the source of anchor votes for UMNO came from. He has set his target of breaking the anchor votes of UMNO from Felda and this is a crucial step.
The former Chairman of FELDA Mohd Isa, who was involved in investment failure incident, had caused an impact on the FELDA votes. He was soon replaced by a prominent UMNO veteran Shahrir to halt the FELDA issue instantly. It also reflected how determined UNMO was trying to safeguard its FELDA anchor votes from being eroded.
The proposed delineation of constituencies which was done at the end of last year until the middle of this year has increased the number of Malay voters in critical constituencies of Barisan Nasional during the last general election. This further reveals that even though the Malay votes are not guaranteed but the ruling party still depends on them very much.
Data analysis of the last general election revealed that the Opposition secured 80% to 85% of the Chinese votes. Friends of mine from the Opposition opined that support from the Chinese voters in the next general election will not increase further and it may drop. The analysis showed that the failure to change the government in the last election caused the Chinese voters to lose interest in politics. In the recent years, political situation is unpredictable and the future of the nation is elusive. It is foreseeable that the Chinese votes for the Opposition would be reduced.
At present the Opposition agreed that in the last general election, the Chinese had already stated their stand on the future of the nation. In this coming general election, the Malay votes will determine who would rule the country.
Whenever my Barisan Nasional friends talk about politics in Malaysia, they repeated saying that in the Malaysian history, there were two opportunities for a change of government. The first one was in the 80s when there was a split in UMNO and the second time was in 1999 during the Reformasi Movement. However during these two general elections, a battered Barisan Nasional caused by a split in Malay votes was saved by the Chinese votes.
It is worth paying attention to a public survey conducted by a non-government agency INVOKE which disclosed that even if UMNO secures only 41% of the Malay votes, in a three cornered fight, the Chinese votes will flow towards the Barisan Nasional candidate.
Hence in the coming general election if the Malay votes split further, will the Chinese votes able to save Barisan Nasional again? What will be the situation like if the Malay tsunami is created but the wave of Chinese votes receded?